Athens, Rome Hold Europe to Ransom

 

Europe is engaged in a high-stakes game of brinkmanship that poses grave risks to the global economy. At last weekend's Villa d'Este Forum in Italy, European policy makers didn't hide their fury at Greece's back-sliding over promised structural reforms and spending cuts. At the same time, Italian ministers undermined the remaining credibility of Silvio Berlusconi's government with a series of complacent speeches. Given such a dangerous breakdown in trust within Europe, investors are right to fear the worst. Germany and its Northern European allies believe only intense market pressure can force weak economies to cut spending and improve competitiveness. But Greece has learned that whenever the crisis in Europe's periphery threatens to overwhelm the core, Europe will ignore previous broken promises and step up with a fresh bailout. Italy now appears to be making the same calculation. The government insists it will fulfill its commitment to balance the budget by 2013, but ministers show no appreciation of the urgent need for structural reforms to address the chronic weakness of an economy that grew on average 0.3% between 2001 and 2010 and experienced a 25% increase in unit labor costs relative to Germany over the same period. Instead, they talk incessantly of euro-zone bonds as a solution to misfortunes they blame largely on external forces. But Italy's dream of euro-zone bonds is likely to remain a fantasy until trust between member states is restored. This no longer depends simply on implementing austerity budgets. Structural reforms have now taken center stage because they are a test of whether the euro zone is worth saving at all: If countries refuse to improve competitiveness, then any attempted solutions to the immediate sovereign-debt crisis will prove short-lived. So what can be done about Greece and Italy? Athens rejects accusations it is dragging its feet but has promised to use a 10-day hiatus in talks with the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund over progress toward its bailout targets to speed up reforms. If it fails to deliver again, European policy makers now talk darkly of a total loss of fiscal sovereignty. How this might work in practice isn't clear. As for Italy, some now believe its best hope lies with the ECB, which last month threw Rome a life line by agreeing to buy its bonds. If the ECB were to stop buying bonds, the subsequent rise in yields might bring down Mr. Berlusconi's administration, paving the way for President Giorgio Napolitano to appoint a technical government with the constitutional authority to make tough decisions. Then, at least, the long process of rebuilding the credibility of the euro zone's third-biggest economy could begin in earnest.

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